A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
